The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on October 22, 2026, that El Niño could reach exceptional strength toward the end of the year. The agency urged coordinated humanitarian action as the climate pattern increases the probability of floods in some regions, drought in others, and heightened heat and wildfire risks. Distinct impacts are already being reported across Africa and Latin America, while Southeast Asia faces important seasonal warnings. Individual disasters should not automatically be attributed to El Niño.
WMO calls for urgent preparedness worldwide
The WMO said El Niño was intensifying and could substantially disrupt temperature and rainfall patterns across continents. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo called for early action, climate information and stronger warnings to protect vulnerable populations. The possibility of exceptional strength is a forecast, not a record already established through observations.
Somalia and East Africa: rising river levels and flood risk
According to an October 22 United Nations Development Programme report, Bardheere, Somalia, received 93 millimetres of rainfall during the first five days of October, above the town’s usual full-month total. By October 8, the Shabelle River at Jowhar had risen to 4.70 metres, close to a cited flood threshold. These are historical observations with explicit dates, not current live river measurements.
UNDP, FAO and UNDRR warn that heavy seasonal rains may threaten displaced communities and settlements close to rivers. Flood risk does not mean all locations in the forecast area have already flooded.
Sudan: drought worsens the humanitarian emergency
An October 12 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification alert, published through the World Health Organization, said El Niño-related drought is affecting roughly half of Sudan and further weakening food supplies and livelihoods. Reuters reported on October 23 that major crop losses in Darfur, Kordofan and Gedaref are adding to famine concerns. Armed conflict, displacement and limited humanitarian funding are also critical causes of suffering. Drought is an additional pressure, not the sole explanation of the crisis.
Southeast Asia: hot weather, rainfall deficits and wildfire smoke
The WMO outlook identifies heat, lower rainfall and wildfire and haze hazards across parts of Southeast Asia. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre has forecast below-normal rain in parts of the Maritime Continent and an ongoing risk of transboundary smoke haze. These are seasonal and regional risk assessments, not confirmation that every country is experiencing an active wildfire emergency.
Latin America: floods and storm damage
Reuters reported on October 22 that severe rain and coastal weather had affected several Latin American countries. Around 4,200 families were affected by Paraná River flooding in Paraguay, where a woman died after her home collapsed during heavy rain. Two rural workers were reported dead amid flooding in Corrientes, Argentina. Reuters also described coastal erosion damage in Mexico and emergency economic assistance in Peru. El Niño influences regional climate patterns, but attributing any particular disaster requires event-specific scientific evidence.
Southern Africa: drought risks for the growing season
WMO and FEWS NET project higher chances of below-normal rainfall in parts of southern Africa during the 2026–2027 agricultural season, raising possible threats to crops, water supplies and food security. These remain forecasts, not confirmed future losses.
Why can El Niño cause opposite impacts at once?
El Niño is a coupled pattern of Pacific Ocean warming and atmospheric circulation changes. When trade winds and tropical rainfall shift, one region may experience increased rain while another becomes unusually dry. The outcome depends on the season, geography, local vulnerability and other climate influences.
Early warnings and local decisions
The WMO recommends coordinated anticipatory action rather than treating a broad seasonal climate outlook as an immediate warning for every community. For country-specific decisions, always use local meteorological and emergency agency alerts. Read EarthSentra’s science guide: El Niño: causes and global consequences.
Verified references
- WMO, October 22, 2026: Global El Niño humanitarian risks
- UNDP, October 22: Somalia rainfall and river-level observations
- WHO/IPC, October 12: Sudan food insecurity and drought
- Reuters, October 23: Sudan drought impacts
- ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre: October 2026 outlook
- Reuters, October 22: Latin American storms and impacts
Published October 23, 2026 (Japan time). Featured image is a conceptual illustration, not a satellite observation or documentary photograph of the cited disasters.
